Despite a recent pause in fertility rate decline, the East African nation of Kenya recently resumed its downward trend \u2013 decreasing from eight to four women per child over the last four decades. And among Sub-Saharan nations, Kenya is far from alone in that regard.<\/p>\n
Still, Kenya has the lowest rate of fertility in East Africa, reports Business Daily Africa<\/em><\/a>, at 3.9 births per female, down from 7.9 in 1960. This compares to bordering countries such as Ethiopia (4.2, from 6.9), Uganda (5.6, from 7.0), Somalia (6.3, from 7.3), and Tanzania (5.0, from 6.8) \u2013 all countries where birth rates, while lower than those measured by the World Bank<\/a> over the same period, nonetheless haven\u2019t dropped as sharply.<\/p>\n The article went on to note that World Bank experts explained the drop in Kenya\u2019s fertility rate to increased use of family planning strategies.<\/p>\n According to the Kenyan government\u2019s 2020 Visioning Program<\/a>, those strategies include scaling up its voucher system in a handful of urban and rural districts; maintaining more than 70 Youth Empowerment Centers which dispense family planning services; and, improving the supply chain for the distribution of family planning supplies.<\/p>\n More broadly across the East African region, three major factors are anticipated to continue to propel fertility decline, says a report from New Security Beat<\/em><\/a>:<\/p>\n In terms of Kenya itself, a 2015 study from the Population Reference Bureau (PRB) credited lifestyle changes, including late marriages and elevated literacy levels in women, for reduced birth rates. Maxwell Okoth, a healthcare practitioner, told the news site Kenyans<\/em><\/a> that a rising cost of living also has contributed to why couples had recently chosen to have fewer children. \u201cFamilies now want a number of children they can take care of comfortably,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n However, as is often the case in countries where fertility rates are on the decline, such as Germany<\/a> and Japan<\/a>, challenges arise to take the places of those that a falling birth rate ameliorates.<\/p>\n Data from a 2018 World Population Data Sheet<\/a> from the PRB indicate that by the middle of the 21st Century, Kenya\u2019s 65+ population will more than double percentage-wise, from the current three per cent to a projected seven per cent.<\/p>\n While this percentage might not seem a concern when compared to other countries (Japan\u2019s 65+ population is over 25 per cent, for example), the percentage of children 14 and under in Kenya will decrease<\/em> from 41 per cent in 2018 to 29 per cent by 2050, resulting in fewer future workers to support an aging population. And Kenya\u2019s population pyramid<\/a> \u2013 a diagram that indicates where the bulk of each country\u2019s population will lie as of 2025 \u2013 appears far more bottom-heavy than that of Japan<\/a>.<\/p>\n Eventually, though, this could work in Kenya\u2019s favor, as the country is expected to increase the number of working-age people from 22 million today to 56 million by 2050. The United Nations<\/a> projects that Kenya\u2019s population will increase at a rate of roughly a million every year during that same period, which translates into approximately 3,000 people each day.<\/p>\n On the downside, though, youth unemployment remains a challenge across East African<\/a> nations, Kenya included.<\/p>\n As economist David Lam tells Daily Nation<\/em>, \u201cSub-Saharan Africa needs to generate about a million new jobs per month to keep employment rates stable and will need to generate almost two million jobs per month by 2030.\u201d<\/p>\n The country\u2019s shift in age structure is expected to play a strong role in its economic viability, including how the government chooses to divide up resources so that every generation can thrive. The Daily Nation<\/em><\/a>, citing the report, adds that monies needed to pay for healthcare and pensions for an aging population \u201ccould increasingly prove a defining issue in Kenya\u2019s economy in the near future\u201d.<\/p>\n\n